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So far during the primary season, we’ve enjoyed polls that offer a clear consensus in the days leading up to the vote.  The may not have been accurate, but they were at least in agreement.  Not so in Florida, as polls from the last three days project a Mitt Romney win by anywhere from 5 to 20 points.  If you buy into the 5-point lead, tonight could be pretty exciting and Newt could conceivably pull an upset.  If you buy into the 20-point Mitt lead, we’ve got our nominee.

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As a rogue warrior, I buy into neither of the two extremes and see Romney settling in with a still-impressive 9-14 point lead over Gingrich.  The most recently released polls show a tightening in the past two days, which is to be expected in a race that still had around 10% undecided over the weekend.  At the risk of being so specific that I hurt my blemish free primary prediction record, I see Romney finishing with about 40%-45% of the vote and Gingrich somewhere around 30%.  Outside of the top 2, I think Santorum will outperform expectations on the heels of strong debate performance with between 13%-16%.  Finally, Paul will take whatever share is remaining and finish in 4th.  For those who don’t like to read, here’s the easily digestible version:

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• Mitt Romney- 40%-45%
• Newt Gingrich- 28%-32%
• Rick Santorum- 13%-16%
• Ron Paul- Whatever is left

If Romney does stomp out a 20+ point lead, Gingrich is going to have a hard time pulling in the resources to run a viable campaign.  Still, he says he’ll fight to the bitter end, and I believe every word of that.  He’s had more lives than calico and there’s no reason to believe he wont be poised to have another resurrection down the road.

Who do you think is going to win in tonight’s Florida Primary?

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Here’s a look at who the rest of the Blogosphere thinks will win tonight’s Florida Primary:

Mitt Romney

• Eye of Polyphemus
• Flying North
• Blue State Failure
• Change Comes Slow
• Presidential Blog 2012 (Thinks Gingrich could come within 2)
• Conservative Samizdat
• Jim Hunt Show
• Newsjogger
• Broad and Pennsylvania
• Florida Democracy 2012
• Escape Tyranny
• Lotsa Splainin’ 2 Do

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