Be sure to check out The Dysfunction Junction’s prediction for the Arizona Primary, which will also be held today.
Never in a million years did I imagine that the Michigan Primary would be anything but a runaway victory for Mitt Romney. With the precincts open and the primary results just a hours away, however, this race couldn’t be any closer.
Following last week’s GOP Arizona Debate, Rick Santorum’s poor performance in that debate seemed like it was going to derail his momentum in both Michigan and Arizona. While it did initially set him back in both states and give Romney a wider margin of victory, it seems that the momentum has again reversed; and the timing couldn’t be better for Mr. Santorum.
Polls released today show Santorum and Romney virtually tied. The latest poll from PPP shows Santorum up 1 over Romney, while another Mitchell/Rosetta Stone poll also released today shows Governor Romney up 1 over Santorum. A crop of 4 polls that were released yesterday also showed a tight race but as a whole were more favorable to Romney. It’s hard to predict with a race as tight as this one, but that’s never stopped me before. Despite evidence that Santorum is going to win late deciders, I do think Romney is going to squeak out a victory in his home state. Romney has a huge advantage in early voting, which, while it isn’t as a huge a factor here as in Arizona, can make a huge difference in such a tight race. It’s going to be SUPER close, but in the end I think his home state ties and Romney’s superior organization will prevail. Well behind Romney and Santorum will be Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, in that order. But they’ll be so far in the back that they’re barely worth mentioning in Michigan.
If Romney doesn’t win, this GOP race is going to be as wide open as ever. In terms of delegates, Santorum and Romney are basically going to earn about the same amount in Michigan. However, a Romney loss, if even by 1 vote, will take all of the wind out of the Romney sails. Even Romney’s top cheerleader Chris Christie has acknowledged that a Romney loss in Michigan could open the door for a brokered convention.
- Mitt Romney
- Rick Santorum
- Newt Gingrich
- Ron Paul
Here’s a look at how the rest of blogosphere thinks the contendors will stack up:
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum
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2012 Primary and Caucus Predictions